[Le Tour 2003]Tour Prognostications - 2003

[Tour Reporter]

Le Tour - 2003

This July finds us celebrating the 100th Anniversary of the Tour de
France.  Of course, the sharp-eyed among you will notice that this is
not the 100th running of the race, courtesy of a couple world wars.
Nevertheless, 100 years of anything is worth celebrating, and the Tour
will go past the place where it all began - regrettably not saved in its
original form as Revell Matin Inn, having become something like a
Tex-Mex restaurant - and will pass through the six cities which hosted
stages in the 1903 edition; Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Nantes
and Paris.  Other stages will feature bits that have become legend - the
switchbacks of L'Alpe d'Huez come immediately to mind - while Paris will
receive a double dip at the trough, hosting both the Prologue Individual
Time Trial and the de rigeur finish at Champs Elysees.

In all the hoopla and historical ressurections, some have argued that
the course may not be as difficult.  There are afterall only three
mountaintop finishes in the 2003 Tour - Stage 8 at L'Alpe d'Huez, Stage
13 at Ax-3 Domaines, and Stage 15 at Luz-Ardiden.  But, the race still
rolls around an entire country, and some very serious climbs lurk in the
miles that lie before the riders.  For example, Stage 14 has six
categorized climbs on a stage that runs 191 kilometers - each of which
are over 2,000 feet. By the time Paris hovers back into view, there will
be some serious attrition among the ranks.

53 individual winners of the Tour de France, and my hope is that there
will be no change in that statistic at the end of this month. Heck, let
me get one think out of the way - I hope Lance Armstrong will be the
winner.  Having said that, I also think that this will be his thinnest
margin of victory, and it will have to be the race in which he uses all
of the tactical savvy and strategic planning at his disposal.

Just who will threaten?  One could argue that the start list reads like
a "Where's He?" of men's professional cycling: Paolo Salvodelli, Cadel
Evans, Marco Pantani, Raimondas Rumsas, Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano are
all sitting on the sideline this weekend for one reason or another.

However, some of the most serious competition may come from a former
teammate.  Tyler Hamilton has had his best season ever, by any test you
want to put to it - the first US winner of Liege-Bastogne-Liege - and
his confidence has been on an upswing since his breakthrough performance
in last year's Giro D'Italia.  Don't forget, his team CSC-Tiscali was
leading in the team time trial before things crumbled following a
mechanical in the ranks.  Team Director Bjarne Riis is smart enough to
not make the same mistake twice, and has bolstered his squad for support
in the Tour.  Tyler was often used as a "rabbit" for Lance in the
individual time trials, and has demonstrated strong ability in the race
against the clock.  Obviously, his climbing prowess is well-documented,
and this year's spring classic victory may have been the spark which
will ignite his full fury.  I'd say he has a strong shot for the top
three, with a personal hope of second.

The most talented man in cycling is of course Jan Ullrich, who has had
more than his share of troubles - both from within and outside.  Having
seemed to knit his private affairs back into shape, he has stayed
focused while Team Coast crumbled into dust around him.  Bianchi stepped
up to maintain the team, so the now celeste-wearing German has a squad
around him.  It seems that he lacks the dedicated team support which
would help him control the race, if he was able to challenge seriously.
He seems to be fit and excited about racing, and I would look for him to
continue to challenge strongly as the race continues.  Ultimately, I
feel he will not be able to challenge in the mountains, though his
flatter stage power will still remain awesome. I would hope to see him
on the podium, looking up at Lance and Tyler.

Other riders who will be seriously challenging for top 5 positions will
be Ivan Basso from Fasso Bortolo - last year's White Jersey winner.  He
has all the star qualities - climbing, power for time trials.  But, he's
also likely to be a marked man whenever he rolls off the front.  Another
rider to watch is Alexandre Vinokourov, the Khazakstan rider for
Team Telekom.  He's had a tremendous spring as well, with a clever
escape to victory in the Dutch Amstel Gold race.  Ex-Nor-Cal boy Levi
Leipheimer could also find himself in the mix, although he doesn't seem
to have been as evident in races this spring. His modus operandi has
been to gain form steadily as the race continues, and he's still
chaffing a bit from last year's performance in the Individual Time
Trial.  Saeco's Danilo Diluca has the strength to challenge - he just
needs a bit of luck to go with his obvious talent.

There are two big question marks in the bunch - Aitor Gonzalez from
Fassa Bortolo and Santiago Botero with Telekom. Both switched teams this
past year, which big visions following some strong efforts.  However,
neither has shown too much this season - whether very cagey preperations
or some type of "sophomore slump" remains to be seen. Gonzalez' results
at the Giro this year even had his team manager telling him to focus
more, while Botero...well, I'd be hard pressed to tell you any race he
was a factor in this year so far. They are both clearly talented bike
riders, Gonzalez with a team-crushing but personal victory in the Vuelta
Espana and Botero hammering some headline gathering efforts in last
years' Tour - one of the few men to beat Lance in a time trial.  Of
course, simply winning a stage does not guarantee Tour victory.  In a
more "open" race such as this year's edition, the risk is being required
to react to one rider's excessive lead - like the tour of two years ago
and the 30 minute deficit created on the road to Morzine.

The other thing to be aware of this year is the strong climbers who
could force Armstrong's hand - specifically Stefano Garzelli from Vini
Caldirola, Euskatel-Euskadi's Iban Mayo, who was particularly tenacious
at the recent Dauphine-Libere, Saeco's Gilberto Simoni, and
Gerolsteiner's Georg Totschnig.  As these boys feel the road pitch
upwards, they will be tempted to stretch the elastic a bit, and the
continuing vigilence of the USPostal Team will be demanded at all times.
They had beefed up their roster a bit with Manuel Beltran, snatched away
from the crumbling Team Coast, and it looks like Floyd Landis has
brought himself into proper form after breaking his hip in the off
season.  Of course, when the man you get to follow on the climbs is
Roberto Heras, things may go a tad easier for you.  Clearly one of the
best climbers in the pro peleton, he has been a steady and devoted
teammate for Lance and has helped to ensure victory in past Tours.

Nevertheless, they will need to stay calm when the climbers start
swarming like bees on the steeper bits.  And as much as I'd love to see
Heras on the podium - either on time or while wearing the Polka-dot
climber's jersey, his first directive will be to make sure that Lance
maintains the top slot.

On the subject of jerseys -

Polka-Dot / King of the Mountain:
I'd hope for Heras, as stated, but realistically, I'd look to Simoni, if
he can hold his form for another grand tour. He did simply ride away
from everyone in the mountains of Italy.  Iban Mayo might be in the mix,
particularly after his performance in the climbs in the Dauphine-Libere,
unless he fancies a chance for the overall, which might spring teammate
David Extebarria. I doubt that Quick Step-Davitamon's Richard Virenque
will be able to muster his bony body out to more than a specific stage win.

Green / Points Leader:
Robbie McEwen has been eyeing this since winning it last year, but
didn't seem to quite have the snap at the Giro.  He also lacks the team
of dedicated draft horses who can dominate the goings-on for the last 3
or 4 kilometers like Where's Mario Cipollini's zebra-striped
Domina-Vacanze squad.  So, he has to "draft and dash or clash", choosing
the right wheel before zipping around. He clearly has the speed to do
it, but there's a lot of variables in that equation.  Alessandro
Petacchi got the free pass to France with his Fassa Bortolo squad after
winning SIX stages of this year's Giro.  After suffering a hellacious
crash in the time trial (and then winning the next day's stage), he
finished outside the time limit.  But, if he can keep with the "autobus"
on the big climbs, he's got the speed to drop McEwen.  An on form Oscar
Freire (Rabobank) is frighteningly fast, but again, lacks the leadout
men dedicated to him.  Personally, I'd love to see Telekom get psyched
up around Erik Zabel's effort for a seventh green jersey - he's been
racing a bit less this spring, for once maybe focusing his speed and
efforts back to the jersey that was snatched from him by the
at-times-trash-talking-talent from down under.

White Jersey / Best Young Rider:
Michael Rodgers from QuickStep-Davitamon.  Hands down. All he has to do
is not crash and get through the mountains in his first tour.

--

Well, the hype and wait are almost over, and throughout Paris, young men
are not sleeping as well as they could, thinking about their date with
the 90th running of this Centenary Edition of the Tour de France - the
largest sporting event in the world.  This will be a fun trip, and the
Tour is always amazing.

-- Jim

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