[Tour 2005]Countdown to the Tour

tour-junkie race-report@cyclofiend.com
Thu, 30 Jun 2005 22:44:33 -0700


As a wise man once said, it's time to piss on the fire and call out the
dogs. Tour Time rises again and for the final time, Lance Armstrong will be
rolling to the line.

The war of gargantuans will be replayed this year, with the big men sluggin=
g
it out street style.  As should be taking place in the year of the
unprecedented 7th potential victory, everyone is fit, trained, rested and
ready to rumble.  In the past months, the key riders have prepared in the
best way they can, and will begin to hang it out on the roadways beginning
this weekend.  Will it a stunning "Seven" before bowing out, or will Lance
use this Tour to introduce us to a new heir to the roads of France?   A lot
of people figure it will be Armstrong and then a couple other riders, but
the Tour has more variables than you can imagine. If it was a pre-ordained
conclusion, it wouldn't be a race.

The pre-Tour drama has been slightly heightened with the report of Lance
getting a decent bounce off the pavement during a training ride on his TT
bike. With a black eye, a cut over his right eyebrow and abrasions on his
hands and knees, he looked a bit like he's joined the local Fight Club.

Up until then, the prep was officially "slightly behind schedule", with
naysayers pointing to his early season abandonment of the Paris-Nice and a
substantial time trial deficit to former teammate Floyd Landis in the Tour
of Georgia. However, his efforts at Dauphine Libere had that air of serious
power being appropriately peaked, which will be one of the Lance legacys to
be mulled over in the years to come. I can think of no other rider who is
better able to focus and drive himself into shape with such incredible
results.

His assistants read like a true "dream team" of cycling - including the
fastest descender in the peleton - Paolo Savoldelli, as well one of my
favorite younger riders Yaraslav Popovych, whose racing heritage comes from
both Italy and Belgium.  Of course, George Hincapie will be on hand - the
only rider who has been with Lance in each victory.

The sad thing for me is that Vlatchislav Ekimov will not be on the squad
this year, unable to recover in time from a back injury which occurred in
April. =20

Discovery Channel for the Tour De France
Lance Armstrong (USA)
Jose Azevedo (P)=20
Manuel Beltran (Sp)
George Hincapie (USA)
Benjamin Noval (Sp)
Pavel Padrnos (Cz)=20
Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr)
Jose Luis Rubiera (Sp)
Paolo Savoldelli (I)

Jan Ullrich in contrast, trained the way he needs to - using hard races to
beat his form in temper.  He's ridden well at the Tour of Switzerland
seemingly without overcooking himself.  While last year he fought out a
narrow victory, this year he pushed himself reasonably hard without seeming
to focus on the win.  Unlike previous years, the German did not seem to let
his form go south with the winter.  The unprecedented "SIX" that Ullrich ha=
s
hanging above him is for second place on the podium.

In an interesting twist, T-Mobile has elected to leave the hardest working
man in the peleton at home this year.  Erik Zabel will not be duking it in
the final meters for a chance at the green jersey.  Instead the team seems
more focused on producing a victory for Ullrich.  Or for Alexander
Vinokurov.  Or for Andreas Kloden.  The multiplicity of talent gives them
more team strength this year, with the added danger of diluting their
efforts.  Still Vinokurov will ride himself into shards when called upon,
and Kloden cannot be underestimated.  Both men could be team leaders in
their own right, and if the team can remain focused on the goal of a yellow
jersey in Paris, they will act powerfully.

But, that's always the twist, isn't it?  When you get signed to Discovery,
as with USPS, you know what the task at hand becomes in July.  Further, you
have the confidence that can only come with a lead rider who has won the
race 6 FREAKIN' TIMES! There has to be that little niggling doubt when you
think about your leader who cracked and failed in previous years. You can't
help but hold that slight glimmer of chance and hope that you may get the
chance if he falters. Plus the machinery of T-Mobile seems better at findin=
g
the weakness of riders than their strengths.

T-Mobile for the Tour de France
Jan Ullrich (G)
Giuseppe Guerini (I)
Matthias Kessler (G)
Andreas Kl=F6den (G)
Danielle Nardello (I)
Stefan Schreck (G)
Oscar Sevilla (Sp)
Tobias Steinhauser (G),
Alexandre Vinokourov (Kz)

The antithesis of this curiously enough, inhabits the team led by a former
T-Mobile rider, Bjarne Riis.  Team CSC has repeatedly found, then nurtured
or restored riders who had been tossed aside or been stuck foundering.  The
exciting and well-drilled squad has been animating races all season.  Ivan
Basso has remained on everyone's short list.  The classy Italian rider has =
a
few years ahead of him, but clearly has begun to elminate his previous weak
spot - the time trial.  Though this season was to be focused upon winning
the Giro d'Italia, illness drove him to retire before the finish. Now he's
returning to form for another Tour.  As anyone who watched last year will
attest, he was the only rider capable of hanging onto Armstrong in the
mountains. =20

Team CSC for Tour de France
Ivan Basso
Carlos Sastre
Kurt-Asle Arvesen
Nicki Sorensen
Dave Zabriskie
Bobby Julich
Jens Voigt
Luke Roberts
Giovanni Lombardi


Levi Leipheimer is due to break through this year.  Despite my pulling for
him because he's a NorCal (Santa Rosa) homeboy, he's put in the hard hours
and specific work which can put him on the podium.  I'm certainly biased
toward wanting to see an all-US podium, with Levi at 2nd and Floyd Landis a=
t
third. =20

Gerolsteiner for the Tour
Levi Leipheimer (USA)
Georg Totschnig (AUT)
Michael Rich (ALL)
Sebastian Lang (ALL)
Fabian Wegmann (ALL)
Robert F=F6rster (ALL)
Ronny Scholz (ALL)
Beat Zberg (SUI)
Peter Wrolich (AUT)

The problem which Landis may experience will be of the T-Mobile type - too
many good riders on form and no clear leader.  Santiago Botero seems to hav=
e
plucked himself up (curiously after a lackluster stint with T-Mobile) and
regained form which had others considering him a serious threat in the Tour=
.
Nevertheles, the official position of Team Phonak is that they "have no tea=
m
leader." Their strongman combo: Landis/Botero/Pereiro.

Phonak for the Tour
Santiago Botero (COL)
Bert Grabsch (GER)
Jose Enrique Gutierrez (SPA)
Robert Hunter (RSA)
Nicolas Jalabert (FRA)
Floyd Landis (USA)
Alexandre Moos (SWI)
Oscar Pereiro Sio (SPA)
Tadej Valjavec (SLO)

Roberto Heras has been monsterously invisible this spring. Although (to mak=
e
a sweeping generalization) the Spanish and Basque riders seem to like to
appear from nowhere in the fashion of Aitor Gonzalez or Iban Mayo, I don't
think this bodes well for the former USPS rider.  The man is a stunning
climber to be sure, but seems to have a fundamental inability to time trial=
.
On this year's course, that is an issue.  Unless he can disappear up the
road on one of the mountaintop finishes and gain enough of a cushion to
protect himself on the final TT, Heras will be an animator, but not a
competitor this year.

Liberty Seguros for the Tour de France
Joseba Beloki (Sp)
Alberto Contador (Sp)
Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Sp)
Roberto Heras  (Sp)
Luis Leon Sanchez (Sp)
Marcos Serrano (Sp)
Angel Vicioso (Sp)
Allan Davis (Aus)
Jorg Jaksche (G)

Iban Mayo has been kept out of the limelight so far, but if they've been
feeding him the same grits as Aitor Gonzalez, it could get interesting.
Gonzalez ended up winning the Tour of Switzerland by 22 seconds over Michae=
l
Rogers, after attacking hard on a climbing stage.  The orangemen of the
Basque country have elected to keep a very low profile, and may have learne=
d
form their mistake in peaking too early last year. Curiously, Fundacion
Ciclista Euskadi seems to be leaving the talented rider off the squad, but =
I
haven't seen the official roster.

Likely Tour Squad -
Iker Camano (ESP)
Unai Etxebarria (VEN)
Iker Flores (ESP)
Inigo Landaluze (ESP)
Egoi Martinez (ESP)
Iban Mayo (ESP)
Haimar Zubeldia (ESP)
David Herrero (ESP)
Mikel Artetxe (ESP)


The Course:
21 Stages - 3607.5 kilometers - 112,595 vertical feet of Climbing

Time Trials -=20
Don't let anyone call the first stage a "Prologue".  The hammer will come
down at the first of 21 stages, an individual time trial of 19 km.  A
near-straight course, more than likely into a headwind, which will make thi=
s
a longer than normal ride. It could either set the tone or reveal gaps in
training.  Another "No-Fault" TTT runs on the 4th stage, with a maximum los=
s
of only 3 minutes to the slowest team. After that it's just bike racing
until the 20th stage, where a 55.5km Individual Time Trial will squeeze the
last of the juice from everyone's legs.

The Mountains -=20
While no individual stage really stands out as a cruncher, it is the densit=
y
of the climbs within the middle 10 days which will be the true test. The
rider who can attack and recover, ride smart and efficiently through the
Alps and then directly into the Pyrenees will mor than likely ride into
Paris as the winner. Despite folks who are saying this is not a mountainous
Tour, there will be 6300 more feet of climbing than last year's Tour. Thoug=
h
Stage 11 will climb the Col de la Madeleine and the Col du Galibier (both
HC) the finish will be at Briancon, 40 km's downhill from the second peak.
Stage 14 will finish the ski resort of AX-3 Domaines after dealing with the
reclassified (now HC) climb of Port de Pailheres.  Mountains continue
through Stage 16, followed by some crunchy days through the Massif Central.
It really remains rocky until the aforementioned final Time Trial.

Again, we get to watch history unfold - it looks like it shall be a classic
Tour.

Thanks for reading!

-- Jim

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