[Tour 2005]Thoughts after Stage 10

[tour-junkie]

The images from the bloodletting at Courchevel still hover on the edge of my
thoughts tonight, and a few thoughts have been teasing at me all day.  I'm
not sure any of these are ultimately correct, or obviously proveable as
wrong.  The "truth" may lie within all or none of these:

-----

"The Unseen Punch" 
Saturday's stage was the result of a master plan from a
supreme gifted tactician.  It makes the rope-a-dope from a few years ago
seem like a grade school play.  Here's the possible scenario; let an
obviously on-form Armstrong (who already has a minute in hand to play with)
fend for himself in the final hill.  Since Vinokourov tends to attack
aggressively, he may do so - especially if there are three T-Mobile riders
in the bunch.*  Vino attacked exactly as the widely announced T-Mobile plan
said they would - sending their "wild card" up and away.  But Armstrong
reacted in a tactically perfect manner.  He calmly paced back up to the
hard-charging attacks, smoothly bringing them into check without undue
exertion.  The lasting image though, was one of Armstrong being pummeled by
the attacks, although he never got seriously gapped by any of them.  Despite
seeming like he could be in trouble, he wasn't.

When interviewed after the race, he cagely said that he "didn't feel all
that good himself".  Giving strong hopes to those who might want the top
step on the podium.

The day after the Rest Day, the entire Discovery team just keeps notching up
the pace and simply crushes the best riders in pro cycling.  Vinokourov
blows spectacularly, and the quiet schism that seems to have nested in the
T-Mobile squad is picked at a bit - he'll clearly have to answer for his two
early attacks in this year's Tour.  There have been grumblings that he's
more interested in riding to increase next year's contract offers than for
this year's Tour.  A seemingly more-on-form-than-Jan Andreas Kloden has got
to be chaffing a bit, having been asked to tow the team leader up the final
slope today. Granted, there must have been some residual pains from Sunday's
crash, but look who else got tossed out by the day's scorching climb.  Even
if he was entirely on form and unhurt, can you imagine Ullrich climbing with
Ivan Basso?

So, you end up with a strategic plan for T-Mobile which required three
riders to be equally invested in it - and the Courchevel stage drove wide
wedges between the riders. As the pace increased on the run up to the climb,
and then increased again on the slope, it's clear that no one beleived it
was happening, or had prepared for the possibility that such an effort would
be made.  They had the lasting image of Sunday's "isolated" Armstrong and
"invisible" Discovery squad.

*Let's just think about that for a second - do we really believe that all 8
of the Discovery riders just went piffle at the same moment?  That still
strikes me as more than a little suspect.

-----

How did such a climb become so decisive?

At some point in his training, either Lance or Chris Carmichael said,
"y'know, if we've got a serious climb that follows a rest day, maybe there's
a way to prepare the body for that..." knowing that the day _after_ a Rest
Day is when most riders' bodies seem to react strangely.  The fact that
there was no transition into the high Alps would not have been lost on
Armstrong or Johan Bruyneel.

Added to that was the nature of the climb - in one sense, it was not a
leg-breaker - certainly no pitches of 20%, for example.  It was a long, hard
climb that Armstrong knew well.  With 22 km of climbing, it would favor the
high cadence and phenomenal cardiovascular reserves of Armstrong, rather
than the sharp vertical accellerations of a bird-boned climber.  And we
(all) already know that climbs are never a big man's friend, dragging like
an anchor behind a rider such as Ullrich.  This particular climb negated the
strengths of both types of rider.

That point surely would not have been lost on Lance.

Finally, the team played a tremendous role in creating the heat which
destroyed the temper of the other riders. For a long way on the climb, it
looked like a Discovery team photo - everyone knew without question what
their task was and how to work together.  When 5 other rides on the same
squad are at the head of events, and the lead riders of most of the other
teams have begun to seeing smoke come up from under their cowlings it should
be clear the quality on the Discovery team - both of the individual riders
and their clear minded preparations for this Tour.

-----

It's said you don't get any free pedal strokes in a race like this - you pay
for every effort made.  You won't get two more clear examples of this than
from the finishes of Jens Voigt and Alexandre Vinokourov.  Vino's result was
discussed above, but it was difficult watching (and then only hearing, as
the cameras had moved on) Voigt's slow implosion.  As one of the most
aggressive and powerful riders in the peleton, he'll certainly recover.
But, it was instructive to see how fast the boiler lost steam at the end.

-----

The landscape of challengers has shifted demonstrably. Michael Rasmussen
cannot be described as a "revelation" of the Tour, but it is quite
gratifying to see this accomplished athlete have things begin to fall in
place for him.  He's frighteningly thin on the bike - almost frail-seeming,
but he can move along at frightening speeds, even on the flats.  If he can
keep alongside the attacking Armstrong, he may find himself showing off his
Polka-Dot Jersey as he stands on the podium for a high finish.  He does seem
to lack a strong time-trialing ability, managing only to scratch out a 174th
place finish in Stage 1 this year, just ahead of Iban Mayo and 3:14 behind
the now-retired David Zabriske.

Perhaps a bit more concerning is Alejandro Valverde.  He's alternately
described as a sprinter who can climb and a climber who can sprint.
Definitely not a Boonen/Hushovd/Backsted/McEwen level fast-boy, he
nonetheless can put on a good turn of speed when required.  He also managed
a respectible 82nd in Stage 1, so he's not abysmal in the Time Trial
discipline.  He won two stages in his first Vuelta A Espana in 2003,
finished 8th overall. In last year's Vuelta, he dropped down to finish 14th
overall, after a reasonably poor Time Trial on the final stage.  But for a
young rider to push with as much confidence as he showed today, he's got
form and fire...

It was also encouraging to see Leipheimer rise from the flames to finish
well today.  Harder climbs suit him well, and it seemed that once he shook
the dust off, he improved as the climb continued.

Ivan Basso may be suffering from a few too many days in this year's Giro.
But, as with Ullrich, I wouldn't count him out just yet - there's plenty of
climbing and racing to come over the next weeks.  It's a long, long race and
everything will happen.

Thanks for reading!

-- Jim

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